2006 Tour de France predictions

[Click here for my updated predictions (posted June 27, 2006), and then HERE! for my scandal revised predictions, posted July 1, 2006]

With a little over one month before the grand pepe of them all, my predictions:

Basso/Team CSC- dominated 2006 Giro d Italia like Armstrong/USPS/Discovery dominated the past 7 TdF. 2006 TdF is his to lose, although some may argue that he rode too hard/peaked to early in winning the Giro. He didn't seem to work/struggle at all in my opinion.

Ullrich- bit chubby looking in the Giro, but what else is new? Although he was clearly only trying to use the Giro for training, his win in the individual time trial can be interpreted in one of two ways: 1) he never wins anything this early, and thus is actually ahead of his training in past seasons: this bodes well for Ullrich. 2) the fact that Basso was less than a minute behind Ullrich suggests that Basso has had some serious improvement in his time trialing which suggests Ullrich won't be able to make any huge gains in this disipline during the TdF. Bodes well for Basso. Although i don't think it will happen, Ullrich will beat Basso or he won't finish in the top 3. I think he is the only person with legitimate shot to win outside of Basso, and I gotta root for him since he's been such a gracious runner up all these years.

Best of the rest (would take an interesting turn of events for one of these guys to win, but anything is possible):

Landis- road well in spring season with some big race wins, but whether he has what it takes in July has yet to be seen

Valverde- future TdF winner? in 2005 TdF, he outsprinted Armstrong in mountaintop finish at Courchevel to win stage (Armstrong got bigger prize, the yellow jersey). Lisa and I saw that stage 5K from summit. valverde has more than just climbing ability, and won some big one day classics this year to highlight his well rounded cycling skills. [PHOTO: VALVERDE PACING ARMSTRONG, RASMUSSEN, MANCEBO TO THE SUMMIT OF COURCHEVEL IN 2005 TdF]






Cancellara: also a rider of the future- well rounded, great time trialist, big win in paris roubaix this year.

Discovery Team: no clear leader but at least 3 riders who have possible podium dreams 1) Azevedo- will likely be Discovery Team leader. Podium finish is definite possibility. Win would be longshot. 2) Popovych- will likely be Discovery Team leader. Podium finish is definite possibility. Win would be longshot. Only thing he's got over Azevedo is age. Best young rider in 2005 TdF... and potential rider of the future. 3) Hincapie: looked to be in early season great shape until his handle bars separated from his bike in Paris/Roubaix, and in subsequent crash, shoulder seperated from body. Dauphine Libere which starts this week is his first race since accident and should tell whether or not he has lost any of his form. the longest of the long shots to win TdF but I'd love to see him be able to mix it up with these guys. my sentimental favorite (next to Ullrich) for being the faithful understudy who now may have a brief moment to shine in the twilight of his career

Vinoukorov: crazy? fearless? Of all the riders with possible shot to win, he will undoubtably be most aggressive. This guy is not afraid to put all his chips into the pot. Whether it is on a HC category col or on the Champs Elysees, you can guarantee Vinny will attack if he thinks he has any shot at winning. Watching this guy ride is amazing.

Leipheimer: solid rider, but I don't see him making much improvement over last year's top 10 TdF finish

My predictions:
1) Basso
2) Valverde
3) Landis
4) Ullrich
5) Vinoukorov
6) Azevedo
7) Leipheimer
8) Cancellara
9) Hincapie
10) Popovych



Things to watch:
1) Ullrich will win or will be no show
2) Team Discovery- they have potential for many stage wins. Team leader will only emerge in 2nd week of race
3) overall U.S. performance: who would have ever thought there would be so many talented americans (landis, hincapie, leiphemer, zabriskie)
4) as exciting as it was to watch Armstrong, this race is going to be much more dramatic in his absence
5) Vinoukorov: may not win, but his attacks will make everyone, including Basso and Ullrich, very nervous indeed. No one can feel safe sitting around marking the competition, when Vinny is flying up the road ahead of them.