2006 Tour de France

The 2006 Tour de France is in the record books. Or maybe it isn't. It's 6 months later, 6 months before the next Tour de France, and it's still not clear who will be the rightful owner of the Maillot Juane. Who knew that the controversy wouldn't end after the pre-race ousting of Ullrich and Basso? The 2006 was first notable for the NON-performances. Discovery Team members weren't up for the challenge. A broken collarbone sent Caisse d'Epargne team leader and yellow jersey contender, Valverde, packing early in the race. A tepid early defense of the yellow jersey by Floyd Landis allowed the emergence of other riders who would have merely been domestiques in different circumstances, namely Sastre, Pereiro, and Kloden. On Alp d' Huez, Frank Schleck and Damian Cunego demonstrated they have what it takes to be future contenders. Landis cracked on Stage 16 giving Oscar Pereiro the opportunity to seize yellow, an event that would not have happened had Caisse d'Epargne not lost Valverde. CSC, despite the loss of Basso had a fantastic tour with Stage wins by Jens Voigt and Schleck, a Stage 14 podium finish by Christian Vande Velde, and an overall podium finish by Carlos Sastre. It was a free for all up to that point. The circus came to a temporary halt when Landis turned in what appeared to be the improbable miracle ride of the century in Stage 17, and finished it off by regaining yellow in the final time trial in Stage 19. Lisa and I watched this stage while sipping on beers in a bar in Carpentras, France. It was one of the most incredible athletic performances we had ever seen.

Then came the doping charge...

The case continues today, 6 months later. In fairness to Landis, it does appear the lab that processed his urine sample may have handled the situation improperly. Irregardless of the final verdict, there is no winner for the 2006 Tour. Landis loses either way. Pereiro rode the time trial of his life in an attempt to defend his yellow jersey and thus is a deserving winner, but even if he is awarded the Yellow Jersey, no one will remember the 2006 Tour de France for his efforts. TdF 2007 is around the corner, but it's going to take alot to get rid of the skeletons in the closet left over from this year.

American Meltdown at the Tour de France

June 7, 2006. Dauphine Libere, 43km individual time trial: 1st,
Zabriskie; 2nd Landis; 3rd Leipheimer; 4th Hincapie.

July 8, 2006. Tour de France, 52km individual time trial: Zabriskie,
13th; Hincapie 24th; Leipheimer 96th; Julich, DNF

With the exception of Floyd, a good old fashioned American choke-a-rama.

Especially Levi. Not even the possiblity that he peaked too early at
the Dauphine can explain this melt down. After watching this ITT, you
realize how high Armstrong and Ullrich raised the bar in their
performances over the past 7 years. You could count on one hand the
number of bad days Ullrich and Armstrong had in the past 7 years. This past weekend, the riders who were suppose to fill their shoes, just cracked under pressure.

The only reason the 170 strong peleton shouldn't pack their bags and give the yellow
jersey to Floyd is that in a 3 week race, lots of unpredictable things
can happen, especially with these characters. The only person with any
legitamate chance to take the race to Floyd is Cadel Evans. The rest
of the so called contenders need Floyd to have an off day or for Phonak
to make a big tactical error.

I'd be psyched for Landis to win this, but I just want to see someone,
anyone, make him work for this!

Seize the moment: Hincapie steals yellow in Stage 1

George is proving that I'm not a complete fool (see my pre-race predictions)

An incredible prologue left him a fraction of a second out of first place yesterday. Although he could have resigned himself to the fact that he would not wear the yellow jersey at any in time in the near future, and alert Hincapie found an opportunity to steal a 2 second time bonus at an intermediate sprint in today's Stage 1 of the Tour de France. Although at the time, I doubt he thought this would be enough to win yellow when the stage ended- the sprinter strongmen (Boonen or Huschov), would simply overpower the field at the finish to win the big time bonuses, as well as the yellow jersey. It took a strange turn of events at the final sprint, but in the end, Hincapie emerged when the dust and chaos settled with his two seconds intact, and the maillot jaune on his shoulders. although, he'll lose it tomorrow, no one deserved it more than he did today, after the performances he gave in the last two stages.

Only time will tell who will lead Team Discovery, but so far, he is proving that he deserves this opportunity.

Scandal Revised 2006 Tour de France Predictions: do you believe in miracles?

24 hours before the start of the TdF, the race is rocked by one of the biggest scandals in recent times. Nothing really more can be said than what's out there. I'm disappointed not to see the showdown between Ullrich and Basso, which I felt was the match-up of the decade. The show goes on, leaving a wide open race with no clear dominant favorites. Gazing into my crystal ball, I predict an upset by an underdog of monumental proportions:

In my opinion, Landis and Leipheimer are the clear favorites now, given their strong performances in various spring races, previous experience and proven ability to race well in the Tour de France. However, what they lack is the ability to dominate the race the way that Armstrong (and Basso or Ullrich had they made the start). This is because they simply aren't that much stronger than the other contenders, and because their respective teams don't have the ability to control a race where half a dozen riders could possible win the yellow jersey.

In the absence of Ullrich and Basso, Valverde's stock rises dramatically. He now has the ability to build big time advantages in the mountains, something he couldn't do against Basso and Ullrich, again because of the strength of these vanquished riders, as well as their teams. He simply has to limit his losses in the time trials, and the yellow jersey is his, much like Marco Pantani's win in 1998.

Although CSC may have been the strongest team, they were built with one purpose in mind... to win the yellow jersey for Basso. They are now like an army without a general.

The big noise will come from Discovery. In Azevedo, Hincapie, Salvodelli, and Popovych, the have 4 riders who could potentially win this race. Although having 4 leaders in general is not a good thing, if they have the discipline and cohesion to use this to their advantage, they will win the Tour de France. their director Johan Bruyneel certainly has the knowledge to mastermind such a coup.

I see the race unfolding as follows: Hincapie will be the highest placed Discovery rider in the first ITT in Stage 7. He will become the de facto team leader, and Discovery will sit him on the wheels of Landis and Leipheimer. Discovery will send Popovych and Salvoldelli on attacks that will be coming fast and furious as the race reaches the foothills of the Pyrenees in Stage 10 into Pau. As these riders are all serious contenders, Gerolsteiner and Phonak are forced to chase. The next stage, SStage 11 to Pla de Beret, Attacks are furious on the only mountain top finish in the Pyrenees. Azevedo, Evans, Salvodelli, Valverde, Kloden, Sastre all make moves, but it is Valverde with the final say who gains yellow for his efforts. Landis and Leipheimer, playing the roles of legitimate leaders are forced on the defensive. Gerolsteiner and Phonak are placed into the red zone to limit the losses of their team leaders against these attacks. Hincapie sits patiently on Leipheimer/Landis's wheel. The next big mountain stage is Stage 15, Alp dHuez. again Valverde attacks. Leipheimer and Landis are isolated, their teams crumpling from the pressure. But this time, a unified Discovery do what they do best-- ride tempo til there is no one left. Hincapie is launched free in the final 3000m. Although he finishes 2nd to Valverdel, his time gains put him ahead of Landis and Leipheimer in the GC. discovery takes up the defensive race over the next two mountain stages in which Valverde, Landis, Leipheimer, simply lack the individual ability and teams to crack the Discovery juggarnaut. This is made more difficult because Discovery sends Azevedo, who is also high on GC, on attacks on Stage 16. Valverde, Landis, Evans, and Leipheimer are all forced to chase on more than one occasion, while Hincapie rides the wheel of popovych and salvodelli for a free ride to the summit. Hincapie rides the time trial of his life to take back his time losses from Valverde in the Stage 19 time trial. He wears yellow into Paris and onto the podium.

On the dawn of the Prologue, my new predictions, for the winner of the Tour de France:
1. Hincapie
2. Valverde
3. Leipheimer
4. Landis
5. Evans
6. Azevedo
7. Kloden
8. Sastre
9. Menchov
10.Rasmussen

Vive le Tour

Updated 2006 Tour de France predictions

[My last Tour de France predictions (click here to see) were made almost a month ago. Lots have happened since then, both on and off the saddle. But just when it can't get any more confusing, my scandal revised predictions are found here, posted July 1, 2006]

With three days before the start in Strasbourg, I make my final update before the battle begins.

Ivan Basso: Nothing more needs to be said. He is ready... he has prepared well to minimize his losses in the time trial, and he and his CSC teammates will dish out pain in the mountains. Will finish no lower than 2nd. Had been my predicted winner a month ago, but...

Jan Ullrich: How could I ever have doubted this guy? Like all the other neighsayers, I questioned his form in the Giro despite his time trial win. However, his performance in the Tour de Suisse demonstrated that he is once again on track as he always has been over the past decade. Possibly more ready than he has ever been. He rode strong in the mountains, limiting his time losses. Granted none of the climbers in the Tour of Switzerland were the caliber of Ivan Basso, but nonetheless, Ullrich demonstrated that he does have the legs. Finally, he rode a flawless time trial in a blinding rainstorm to win the overall on the final day. No one has more experience in racing for the overall in the Tour de France. Sorry for not believing in you earlier Kaiser, but I believe in you now. It's a toss-up still, but I predict Jan Ullrich will win the 2006 Tour de France.

George Hincapie: Solid performance in the Dauphine, landing in top 10 on GC, and showing that he deserves serious consideration to be both Discovery team leader and contender for the overall in the TdF. He has demonstrated that he is one of the best time trialists to take the start this Saturday. His climbing is what makes him most suspect; although he has learned to ride with the best on the toughest cols, he has yet to demonstrate that he has the explosive power to make one of these stages his own. Although many people tend to blow off his win at Pla d'Adet (05 TdF) since he did no work in his role as domestique for Armstrong, the bottom line is that George had been putting himself out there for two weeks straight riding for Armstrong, but still had enough in him to ride at the front of the toughest mountain stage in the entire 2005 Tour. Next to Ullrich, no one has the wealth of knowledge of how to race a brutal 3 week stage race while gunning for the overall. In the past, this knowledge was used for the benefit of Armstrong. This year, George has been given permission to use it for himself. Although Azevedo is probably a stronger rider, George's experience will make him Discovery's team leader and will give him a legitimate shot at the podium.

Azevedo: Although he was the top Discovery rider in the Dauphine Libere, Hincapie's experience trumps Azevedo's strength, at least this year.

Popovych: Didn't have a spectacular race at the Dauphine. Has many years to improve, but 2006 will be spent riding for Hincapie or Azevedo.

Landis: What's this guy capable of? Won't know that til the race begins. Still think he is the only guy outside of Basso and Ullrich to win the 2006 outright. This will depend on how he handles himself in the mountains. His luke warm performances at the Dauphine Libere left some questions, although his team certainly tried to spin his non-performance as simply part of the master plan. Although I didn't expect him to go out and try to win stages like Ventoux, you would certainly think he would have tested himself by pushing a little harder had he been able.

Valverde: I really like this guy. He will win big in the mountains, perhaps Alp d' Huez. His time trialing prevents him from winning the overall, although he did make some improvements in this disipline as he showed in the Dauphine. the long ITT's will hurt him nonetheless and he lacks the experience and team strength to propel him to the podium

Leipheimer: His win at the Dauphine Libere was his way of telling all of us that he has been one of the most consistent riders in the last few years of the TdF. Perhaps he will remain one of the most underestimated riders capable of pulling off a really big surprise. I hope this is true, but I'll have to see it to believe it.

Cancellara: Scratch him. Didn't even make the CSC roster which is unbelievably scary... showing how talented the riders are that will be doing tempo for Basso. Cancellara will be team leader for someone down the line.

Vinoukorov: He and his team remained plagued by possible involvement in drug scandals. Perhaps this explains his mediocre performance at the Dauphine Libere, and unfortunately, is likely affecting his TdF preparations as well. If he is even allowed to start, I think the distractions will keep him from making any legitimate run at the overall. However, in typical Vinoukorov fashion, I'm sure he will defiantly make his presence known in one or two stages nonetheless.

Cadel Evans: Not on my previous list, but his win at Romandie and his strong time trial performance at the tour de suisse demonstrate that this Aussie climber is a real GC contender. Sorry to have missed you the first time Cadel.

Cunego: will finally make the start, but will simply be a side note. Still has lots to prove, but he has the time to do this if he is patient enough

Menchov: a pretender rather than a contender. He can follow wheels but that's about it, as he demonstrated in the Dauphine.

Predictions:
1. Ullrich
2. Basso
3. Landis
4. Hincapie
5. Valverde
6. Leipheimer
7. Azevedo
8. Evans
9-10 Vinokourov/Sastre/Kloden/Moreau

2006 Tour de France predictions

[Click here for my updated predictions (posted June 27, 2006), and then HERE! for my scandal revised predictions, posted July 1, 2006]

With a little over one month before the grand pepe of them all, my predictions:

Basso/Team CSC- dominated 2006 Giro d Italia like Armstrong/USPS/Discovery dominated the past 7 TdF. 2006 TdF is his to lose, although some may argue that he rode too hard/peaked to early in winning the Giro. He didn't seem to work/struggle at all in my opinion.

Ullrich- bit chubby looking in the Giro, but what else is new? Although he was clearly only trying to use the Giro for training, his win in the individual time trial can be interpreted in one of two ways: 1) he never wins anything this early, and thus is actually ahead of his training in past seasons: this bodes well for Ullrich. 2) the fact that Basso was less than a minute behind Ullrich suggests that Basso has had some serious improvement in his time trialing which suggests Ullrich won't be able to make any huge gains in this disipline during the TdF. Bodes well for Basso. Although i don't think it will happen, Ullrich will beat Basso or he won't finish in the top 3. I think he is the only person with legitimate shot to win outside of Basso, and I gotta root for him since he's been such a gracious runner up all these years.

Best of the rest (would take an interesting turn of events for one of these guys to win, but anything is possible):

Landis- road well in spring season with some big race wins, but whether he has what it takes in July has yet to be seen

Valverde- future TdF winner? in 2005 TdF, he outsprinted Armstrong in mountaintop finish at Courchevel to win stage (Armstrong got bigger prize, the yellow jersey). Lisa and I saw that stage 5K from summit. valverde has more than just climbing ability, and won some big one day classics this year to highlight his well rounded cycling skills. [PHOTO: VALVERDE PACING ARMSTRONG, RASMUSSEN, MANCEBO TO THE SUMMIT OF COURCHEVEL IN 2005 TdF]






Cancellara: also a rider of the future- well rounded, great time trialist, big win in paris roubaix this year.

Discovery Team: no clear leader but at least 3 riders who have possible podium dreams 1) Azevedo- will likely be Discovery Team leader. Podium finish is definite possibility. Win would be longshot. 2) Popovych- will likely be Discovery Team leader. Podium finish is definite possibility. Win would be longshot. Only thing he's got over Azevedo is age. Best young rider in 2005 TdF... and potential rider of the future. 3) Hincapie: looked to be in early season great shape until his handle bars separated from his bike in Paris/Roubaix, and in subsequent crash, shoulder seperated from body. Dauphine Libere which starts this week is his first race since accident and should tell whether or not he has lost any of his form. the longest of the long shots to win TdF but I'd love to see him be able to mix it up with these guys. my sentimental favorite (next to Ullrich) for being the faithful understudy who now may have a brief moment to shine in the twilight of his career

Vinoukorov: crazy? fearless? Of all the riders with possible shot to win, he will undoubtably be most aggressive. This guy is not afraid to put all his chips into the pot. Whether it is on a HC category col or on the Champs Elysees, you can guarantee Vinny will attack if he thinks he has any shot at winning. Watching this guy ride is amazing.

Leipheimer: solid rider, but I don't see him making much improvement over last year's top 10 TdF finish

My predictions:
1) Basso
2) Valverde
3) Landis
4) Ullrich
5) Vinoukorov
6) Azevedo
7) Leipheimer
8) Cancellara
9) Hincapie
10) Popovych



Things to watch:
1) Ullrich will win or will be no show
2) Team Discovery- they have potential for many stage wins. Team leader will only emerge in 2nd week of race
3) overall U.S. performance: who would have ever thought there would be so many talented americans (landis, hincapie, leiphemer, zabriskie)
4) as exciting as it was to watch Armstrong, this race is going to be much more dramatic in his absence
5) Vinoukorov: may not win, but his attacks will make everyone, including Basso and Ullrich, very nervous indeed. No one can feel safe sitting around marking the competition, when Vinny is flying up the road ahead of them.

2005 in review: Tour de France, July

This past summer, Lisa and I were able to travel to France to watch Lance Armstrong win his 7th consecutive Tour. We decided to do this via a tour company (Duvine Adventures) since we didn't make our decision to go until it was relatively late and the logistics of the TdF were unknown to us at the time. The highlight was seeing Stage 10 up close and personal, from where we stood 5k from the summit of the alpine ski village of Courchevel. This ended up being the defining stage of the race where Armstrong, still wearing Discovery blue (photo t0p), rode to a second place finish in a four man breakaway, earning the yellow jersey which he held through the final stage in Paris.
We have plans to return again to see TdF 2006...with Armstrongs retirement, this is truely going to be an absolute slugfest amongst riders hoping to fill the vaccuum. We plan to catch some stages in the Alps, including l' Alp d'Huez, before retreating to Provence for some R and R. We've got reservations to stay at a bed and breakfast run by a wonderful lady named Georgia, who we met on a previous trip to France. She pretty much decided on a whim to uproot herself from her life here in the U.S. to pursue the Peter Mayle-ish dream of owning her own B and B in Provence (www.lelavandinprovence.com).