Scandal Revised 2006 Tour de France Predictions: do you believe in miracles?
24 hours before the start of the TdF, the race is rocked by one of the biggest scandals in recent times. Nothing really more can be said than what's out there. I'm disappointed not to see the showdown between Ullrich and Basso, which I felt was the match-up of the decade. The show goes on, leaving a wide open race with no clear dominant favorites. Gazing into my crystal ball, I predict an upset by an underdog of monumental proportions:
In my opinion, Landis and Leipheimer are the clear favorites now, given their strong performances in various spring races, previous experience and proven ability to race well in the Tour de France. However, what they lack is the ability to dominate the race the way that Armstrong (and Basso or Ullrich had they made the start). This is because they simply aren't that much stronger than the other contenders, and because their respective teams don't have the ability to control a race where half a dozen riders could possible win the yellow jersey.
In the absence of Ullrich and Basso, Valverde's stock rises dramatically. He now has the ability to build big time advantages in the mountains, something he couldn't do against Basso and Ullrich, again because of the strength of these vanquished riders, as well as their teams. He simply has to limit his losses in the time trials, and the yellow jersey is his, much like Marco Pantani's win in 1998.
Although CSC may have been the strongest team, they were built with one purpose in mind... to win the yellow jersey for Basso. They are now like an army without a general.
The big noise will come from Discovery. In Azevedo, Hincapie, Salvodelli, and Popovych, the have 4 riders who could potentially win this race. Although having 4 leaders in general is not a good thing, if they have the discipline and cohesion to use this to their advantage, they will win the Tour de France. their director Johan Bruyneel certainly has the knowledge to mastermind such a coup.
I see the race unfolding as follows: Hincapie will be the highest placed Discovery rider in the first ITT in Stage 7. He will become the de facto team leader, and Discovery will sit him on the wheels of Landis and Leipheimer. Discovery will send Popovych and Salvoldelli on attacks that will be coming fast and furious as the race reaches the foothills of the Pyrenees in Stage 10 into Pau. As these riders are all serious contenders, Gerolsteiner and Phonak are forced to chase. The next stage, SStage 11 to Pla de Beret, Attacks are furious on the only mountain top finish in the Pyrenees. Azevedo, Evans, Salvodelli, Valverde, Kloden, Sastre all make moves, but it is Valverde with the final say who gains yellow for his efforts. Landis and Leipheimer, playing the roles of legitimate leaders are forced on the defensive. Gerolsteiner and Phonak are placed into the red zone to limit the losses of their team leaders against these attacks. Hincapie sits patiently on Leipheimer/Landis's wheel. The next big mountain stage is Stage 15, Alp dHuez. again Valverde attacks. Leipheimer and Landis are isolated, their teams crumpling from the pressure. But this time, a unified Discovery do what they do best-- ride tempo til there is no one left. Hincapie is launched free in the final 3000m. Although he finishes 2nd to Valverdel, his time gains put him ahead of Landis and Leipheimer in the GC. discovery takes up the defensive race over the next two mountain stages in which Valverde, Landis, Leipheimer, simply lack the individual ability and teams to crack the Discovery juggarnaut. This is made more difficult because Discovery sends Azevedo, who is also high on GC, on attacks on Stage 16. Valverde, Landis, Evans, and Leipheimer are all forced to chase on more than one occasion, while Hincapie rides the wheel of popovych and salvodelli for a free ride to the summit. Hincapie rides the time trial of his life to take back his time losses from Valverde in the Stage 19 time trial. He wears yellow into Paris and onto the podium.
On the dawn of the Prologue, my new predictions, for the winner of the Tour de France:
1. Hincapie
2. Valverde
3. Leipheimer
4. Landis
5. Evans
6. Azevedo
7. Kloden
8. Sastre
9. Menchov
10.Rasmussen
Vive le Tour
In my opinion, Landis and Leipheimer are the clear favorites now, given their strong performances in various spring races, previous experience and proven ability to race well in the Tour de France. However, what they lack is the ability to dominate the race the way that Armstrong (and Basso or Ullrich had they made the start). This is because they simply aren't that much stronger than the other contenders, and because their respective teams don't have the ability to control a race where half a dozen riders could possible win the yellow jersey.
In the absence of Ullrich and Basso, Valverde's stock rises dramatically. He now has the ability to build big time advantages in the mountains, something he couldn't do against Basso and Ullrich, again because of the strength of these vanquished riders, as well as their teams. He simply has to limit his losses in the time trials, and the yellow jersey is his, much like Marco Pantani's win in 1998.
Although CSC may have been the strongest team, they were built with one purpose in mind... to win the yellow jersey for Basso. They are now like an army without a general.
The big noise will come from Discovery. In Azevedo, Hincapie, Salvodelli, and Popovych, the have 4 riders who could potentially win this race. Although having 4 leaders in general is not a good thing, if they have the discipline and cohesion to use this to their advantage, they will win the Tour de France. their director Johan Bruyneel certainly has the knowledge to mastermind such a coup.
I see the race unfolding as follows: Hincapie will be the highest placed Discovery rider in the first ITT in Stage 7. He will become the de facto team leader, and Discovery will sit him on the wheels of Landis and Leipheimer. Discovery will send Popovych and Salvoldelli on attacks that will be coming fast and furious as the race reaches the foothills of the Pyrenees in Stage 10 into Pau. As these riders are all serious contenders, Gerolsteiner and Phonak are forced to chase. The next stage, SStage 11 to Pla de Beret, Attacks are furious on the only mountain top finish in the Pyrenees. Azevedo, Evans, Salvodelli, Valverde, Kloden, Sastre all make moves, but it is Valverde with the final say who gains yellow for his efforts. Landis and Leipheimer, playing the roles of legitimate leaders are forced on the defensive. Gerolsteiner and Phonak are placed into the red zone to limit the losses of their team leaders against these attacks. Hincapie sits patiently on Leipheimer/Landis's wheel. The next big mountain stage is Stage 15, Alp dHuez. again Valverde attacks. Leipheimer and Landis are isolated, their teams crumpling from the pressure. But this time, a unified Discovery do what they do best-- ride tempo til there is no one left. Hincapie is launched free in the final 3000m. Although he finishes 2nd to Valverdel, his time gains put him ahead of Landis and Leipheimer in the GC. discovery takes up the defensive race over the next two mountain stages in which Valverde, Landis, Leipheimer, simply lack the individual ability and teams to crack the Discovery juggarnaut. This is made more difficult because Discovery sends Azevedo, who is also high on GC, on attacks on Stage 16. Valverde, Landis, Evans, and Leipheimer are all forced to chase on more than one occasion, while Hincapie rides the wheel of popovych and salvodelli for a free ride to the summit. Hincapie rides the time trial of his life to take back his time losses from Valverde in the Stage 19 time trial. He wears yellow into Paris and onto the podium.
On the dawn of the Prologue, my new predictions, for the winner of the Tour de France:
1. Hincapie
2. Valverde
3. Leipheimer
4. Landis
5. Evans
6. Azevedo
7. Kloden
8. Sastre
9. Menchov
10.Rasmussen
Vive le Tour
Labels: Tour de France
posted by Phil at 12:50 AM
1 Comments:
you know, after that whole insane upset, i'd initially been pulling for ullrich but now i think it's all about george. i mean, zabriskie and landis... that would be great too, but i think this is the year to pull for hincapie. it's so unnerving though! this tour just took such a strange turn.
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