Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Updated 2006 Tour de France predictions

[My last Tour de France predictions (click here to see) were made almost a month ago. Lots have happened since then, both on and off the saddle. But just when it can't get any more confusing, my scandal revised predictions are found here, posted July 1, 2006]

With three days before the start in Strasbourg, I make my final update before the battle begins.

Ivan Basso: Nothing more needs to be said. He is ready... he has prepared well to minimize his losses in the time trial, and he and his CSC teammates will dish out pain in the mountains. Will finish no lower than 2nd. Had been my predicted winner a month ago, but...

Jan Ullrich: How could I ever have doubted this guy? Like all the other neighsayers, I questioned his form in the Giro despite his time trial win. However, his performance in the Tour de Suisse demonstrated that he is once again on track as he always has been over the past decade. Possibly more ready than he has ever been. He rode strong in the mountains, limiting his time losses. Granted none of the climbers in the Tour of Switzerland were the caliber of Ivan Basso, but nonetheless, Ullrich demonstrated that he does have the legs. Finally, he rode a flawless time trial in a blinding rainstorm to win the overall on the final day. No one has more experience in racing for the overall in the Tour de France. Sorry for not believing in you earlier Kaiser, but I believe in you now. It's a toss-up still, but I predict Jan Ullrich will win the 2006 Tour de France.

George Hincapie: Solid performance in the Dauphine, landing in top 10 on GC, and showing that he deserves serious consideration to be both Discovery team leader and contender for the overall in the TdF. He has demonstrated that he is one of the best time trialists to take the start this Saturday. His climbing is what makes him most suspect; although he has learned to ride with the best on the toughest cols, he has yet to demonstrate that he has the explosive power to make one of these stages his own. Although many people tend to blow off his win at Pla d'Adet (05 TdF) since he did no work in his role as domestique for Armstrong, the bottom line is that George had been putting himself out there for two weeks straight riding for Armstrong, but still had enough in him to ride at the front of the toughest mountain stage in the entire 2005 Tour. Next to Ullrich, no one has the wealth of knowledge of how to race a brutal 3 week stage race while gunning for the overall. In the past, this knowledge was used for the benefit of Armstrong. This year, George has been given permission to use it for himself. Although Azevedo is probably a stronger rider, George's experience will make him Discovery's team leader and will give him a legitimate shot at the podium.

Azevedo: Although he was the top Discovery rider in the Dauphine Libere, Hincapie's experience trumps Azevedo's strength, at least this year.

Popovych: Didn't have a spectacular race at the Dauphine. Has many years to improve, but 2006 will be spent riding for Hincapie or Azevedo.

Landis: What's this guy capable of? Won't know that til the race begins. Still think he is the only guy outside of Basso and Ullrich to win the 2006 outright. This will depend on how he handles himself in the mountains. His luke warm performances at the Dauphine Libere left some questions, although his team certainly tried to spin his non-performance as simply part of the master plan. Although I didn't expect him to go out and try to win stages like Ventoux, you would certainly think he would have tested himself by pushing a little harder had he been able.

Valverde: I really like this guy. He will win big in the mountains, perhaps Alp d' Huez. His time trialing prevents him from winning the overall, although he did make some improvements in this disipline as he showed in the Dauphine. the long ITT's will hurt him nonetheless and he lacks the experience and team strength to propel him to the podium

Leipheimer: His win at the Dauphine Libere was his way of telling all of us that he has been one of the most consistent riders in the last few years of the TdF. Perhaps he will remain one of the most underestimated riders capable of pulling off a really big surprise. I hope this is true, but I'll have to see it to believe it.

Cancellara: Scratch him. Didn't even make the CSC roster which is unbelievably scary... showing how talented the riders are that will be doing tempo for Basso. Cancellara will be team leader for someone down the line.

Vinoukorov: He and his team remained plagued by possible involvement in drug scandals. Perhaps this explains his mediocre performance at the Dauphine Libere, and unfortunately, is likely affecting his TdF preparations as well. If he is even allowed to start, I think the distractions will keep him from making any legitimate run at the overall. However, in typical Vinoukorov fashion, I'm sure he will defiantly make his presence known in one or two stages nonetheless.

Cadel Evans: Not on my previous list, but his win at Romandie and his strong time trial performance at the tour de suisse demonstrate that this Aussie climber is a real GC contender. Sorry to have missed you the first time Cadel.

Cunego: will finally make the start, but will simply be a side note. Still has lots to prove, but he has the time to do this if he is patient enough

Menchov: a pretender rather than a contender. He can follow wheels but that's about it, as he demonstrated in the Dauphine.

Predictions:
1. Ullrich
2. Basso
3. Landis
4. Hincapie
5. Valverde
6. Leipheimer
7. Azevedo
8. Evans
9-10 Vinokourov/Sastre/Kloden/Moreau

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Tuesday, June 20, 2006

Running: Week minus 18 and 17 training summary*

*weeks until target marathon (Columbus)

Week -18:
Mon: off
Tues: Run Track 12x400 w 200m recovery (range 77-89 sec; median 85) 6m; Avg HR 167; Max 193
Wed: Bike (spin) 40 min (3m equiv)
Thur: Off
Fri: Run (indoor track) pace; 48 min (approx 6 m+); avg HR 172; Max 191
Sat Bike (spin) 3 mile equiv HR avg 153/max 164
Sun: Run 14 m Bethesda-Union Station w excursion around monuments and East Capitol; Avg HR 156 (Approx 2 hrs)

Total miles :32

Week -17:
Mon: Run 3m easy
Tues: Off
Wed: Bike (spin) 35 min (3 mile equiv)
Thur: run track 12x200 w 200 recov. (34-40; 36 median); and 2x400 (80,82)
Fri: Off
Sat: Bike (road) 30 miles (8mile run equiv): approx 2hr, rock creek park
Sun: Run 16m KenGar north (approx 2 hours)

Total Miles 35

Weekly mileage has climbed above 30 for first time, w long run of 16

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Friday, June 09, 2006

Stella's graduation

Over the Memorial Day weekend, Lisa and I travelled to Los Angeles to see Stella obtain her well deserved degree in Pscychology from California State University, Long Beach. She worked hard for this, and we were absolutely thrilled to see her march at commencement. For more graduation photos, click here. View the slideshow feature while humming the opening verse of Whitney Houston's Greatest Love of All: "We believe the children our are future; teach them well, and LET THEM LEA-AD the WAAYY..."

Thursday, June 08, 2006

Running: week 19 training summary*

19 weeks until target marathon (Columbus)*

Mon-4m easy
Tues- Spin 30 min (3m equiv)
Wed-6m moderate
Thur- 6m, intervals on treadmill (thunderstorm). 14 x"400" (6min pace, level 10, 90 sec) with 90sec recovery
Fri-off
Sat-off
Sun-5m (5k Race 19:20, 6:15 pace)

Weekly Miles: 24. A bit on the low side, but did race on Sun instead of long run. I'm slowly getting used to speed, as it has been many years since I've done any consistent interval training or run any race shorter than 10k

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Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Race to Replace (my old marathon PR)

Primary Objective: marathon PR ( under 2:59)
Secondary Objective: Qualify for 2007 Boston Marathon (3:15)

Target Race: Columbus Marathon (OH) October 15, 2006
Weeks Until Race: 18+
Why Columbus: flat, fast. Two previous PRs set there (3:07, 2:59). Medium sized race- not crowded, but good support, lots of people to run with.

Why try?
1. Motivated by Lisa's newfound interest in running
2. Not getting any younger
3. Survived my first "chronic" injury ( hamstring) resulting from idiotic training (or lack thereof) for marathons...need to get more discipline
4. Metabolism is slooowwwing down
5. My version of a mid-life crisis

Race times (PR/Recent time)
5K 16:55 (1986); 19:20 (2006)
10K 36:10 (1986); 40:20 (2006)
10 miles 1:03 (1987); 1:10 (2006)
Marathon 2:59 (1998); 3:17 (2004)

Status of current training: 20-25 miles/week; 14 miles- current long run (7:50 pace).

Experienced Marathon Training Program
with the Montgomery County Road Runners Club begins mid-July...

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Monday, June 05, 2006

Time flies when you're having fun


Our 7th wedding anniversary is today. It's hard to believe it's been that long. Lisa's still my best friend, and it seems that every year we spend together gets better.

Friday, June 02, 2006

2006 Tour de France predictions

[Click here for my updated predictions (posted June 27, 2006), and then HERE! for my scandal revised predictions, posted July 1, 2006]

With a little over one month before the grand pepe of them all, my predictions:

Basso/Team CSC- dominated 2006 Giro d Italia like Armstrong/USPS/Discovery dominated the past 7 TdF. 2006 TdF is his to lose, although some may argue that he rode too hard/peaked to early in winning the Giro. He didn't seem to work/struggle at all in my opinion.

Ullrich- bit chubby looking in the Giro, but what else is new? Although he was clearly only trying to use the Giro for training, his win in the individual time trial can be interpreted in one of two ways: 1) he never wins anything this early, and thus is actually ahead of his training in past seasons: this bodes well for Ullrich. 2) the fact that Basso was less than a minute behind Ullrich suggests that Basso has had some serious improvement in his time trialing which suggests Ullrich won't be able to make any huge gains in this disipline during the TdF. Bodes well for Basso. Although i don't think it will happen, Ullrich will beat Basso or he won't finish in the top 3. I think he is the only person with legitimate shot to win outside of Basso, and I gotta root for him since he's been such a gracious runner up all these years.

Best of the rest (would take an interesting turn of events for one of these guys to win, but anything is possible):

Landis- road well in spring season with some big race wins, but whether he has what it takes in July has yet to be seen

Valverde- future TdF winner? in 2005 TdF, he outsprinted Armstrong in mountaintop finish at Courchevel to win stage (Armstrong got bigger prize, the yellow jersey). Lisa and I saw that stage 5K from summit. valverde has more than just climbing ability, and won some big one day classics this year to highlight his well rounded cycling skills. [PHOTO: VALVERDE PACING ARMSTRONG, RASMUSSEN, MANCEBO TO THE SUMMIT OF COURCHEVEL IN 2005 TdF]






Cancellara: also a rider of the future- well rounded, great time trialist, big win in paris roubaix this year.

Discovery Team: no clear leader but at least 3 riders who have possible podium dreams 1) Azevedo- will likely be Discovery Team leader. Podium finish is definite possibility. Win would be longshot. 2) Popovych- will likely be Discovery Team leader. Podium finish is definite possibility. Win would be longshot. Only thing he's got over Azevedo is age. Best young rider in 2005 TdF... and potential rider of the future. 3) Hincapie: looked to be in early season great shape until his handle bars separated from his bike in Paris/Roubaix, and in subsequent crash, shoulder seperated from body. Dauphine Libere which starts this week is his first race since accident and should tell whether or not he has lost any of his form. the longest of the long shots to win TdF but I'd love to see him be able to mix it up with these guys. my sentimental favorite (next to Ullrich) for being the faithful understudy who now may have a brief moment to shine in the twilight of his career

Vinoukorov: crazy? fearless? Of all the riders with possible shot to win, he will undoubtably be most aggressive. This guy is not afraid to put all his chips into the pot. Whether it is on a HC category col or on the Champs Elysees, you can guarantee Vinny will attack if he thinks he has any shot at winning. Watching this guy ride is amazing.

Leipheimer: solid rider, but I don't see him making much improvement over last year's top 10 TdF finish

My predictions:
1) Basso
2) Valverde
3) Landis
4) Ullrich
5) Vinoukorov
6) Azevedo
7) Leipheimer
8) Cancellara
9) Hincapie
10) Popovych



Things to watch:
1) Ullrich will win or will be no show
2) Team Discovery- they have potential for many stage wins. Team leader will only emerge in 2nd week of race
3) overall U.S. performance: who would have ever thought there would be so many talented americans (landis, hincapie, leiphemer, zabriskie)
4) as exciting as it was to watch Armstrong, this race is going to be much more dramatic in his absence
5) Vinoukorov: may not win, but his attacks will make everyone, including Basso and Ullrich, very nervous indeed. No one can feel safe sitting around marking the competition, when Vinny is flying up the road ahead of them.

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