Updated 2006 Tour de France predictions
[My last Tour de France predictions (click here to see) were made almost a month ago. Lots have happened since then, both on and off the saddle. But just when it can't get any more confusing, my scandal revised predictions are found here, posted July 1, 2006]
With three days before the start in Strasbourg, I make my final update before the battle begins.
Ivan Basso: Nothing more needs to be said. He is ready... he has prepared well to minimize his losses in the time trial, and he and his CSC teammates will dish out pain in the mountains. Will finish no lower than 2nd. Had been my predicted winner a month ago, but...
Jan Ullrich: How could I ever have doubted this guy? Like all the other neighsayers, I questioned his form in the Giro despite his time trial win. However, his performance in the Tour de Suisse demonstrated that he is once again on track as he always has been over the past decade. Possibly more ready than he has ever been. He rode strong in the mountains, limiting his time losses. Granted none of the climbers in the Tour of Switzerland were the caliber of Ivan Basso, but nonetheless, Ullrich demonstrated that he does have the legs. Finally, he rode a flawless time trial in a blinding rainstorm to win the overall on the final day. No one has more experience in racing for the overall in the Tour de France. Sorry for not believing in you earlier Kaiser, but I believe in you now. It's a toss-up still, but I predict Jan Ullrich will win the 2006 Tour de France.
George Hincapie: Solid performance in the Dauphine, landing in top 10 on GC, and showing that he deserves serious consideration to be both Discovery team leader and contender for the overall in the TdF. He has demonstrated that he is one of the best time trialists to take the start this Saturday. His climbing is what makes him most suspect; although he has learned to ride with the best on the toughest cols, he has yet to demonstrate that he has the explosive power to make one of these stages his own. Although many people tend to blow off his win at Pla d'Adet (05 TdF) since he did no work in his role as domestique for Armstrong, the bottom line is that George had been putting himself out there for two weeks straight riding for Armstrong, but still had enough in him to ride at the front of the toughest mountain stage in the entire 2005 Tour. Next to Ullrich, no one has the wealth of knowledge of how to race a brutal 3 week stage race while gunning for the overall. In the past, this knowledge was used for the benefit of Armstrong. This year, George has been given permission to use it for himself. Although Azevedo is probably a stronger rider, George's experience will make him Discovery's team leader and will give him a legitimate shot at the podium.
Azevedo: Although he was the top Discovery rider in the Dauphine Libere, Hincapie's experience trumps Azevedo's strength, at least this year.
Popovych: Didn't have a spectacular race at the Dauphine. Has many years to improve, but 2006 will be spent riding for Hincapie or Azevedo.
Landis: What's this guy capable of? Won't know that til the race begins. Still think he is the only guy outside of Basso and Ullrich to win the 2006 outright. This will depend on how he handles himself in the mountains. His luke warm performances at the Dauphine Libere left some questions, although his team certainly tried to spin his non-performance as simply part of the master plan. Although I didn't expect him to go out and try to win stages like Ventoux, you would certainly think he would have tested himself by pushing a little harder had he been able.
Valverde: I really like this guy. He will win big in the mountains, perhaps Alp d' Huez. His time trialing prevents him from winning the overall, although he did make some improvements in this disipline as he showed in the Dauphine. the long ITT's will hurt him nonetheless and he lacks the experience and team strength to propel him to the podium
Leipheimer: His win at the Dauphine Libere was his way of telling all of us that he has been one of the most consistent riders in the last few years of the TdF. Perhaps he will remain one of the most underestimated riders capable of pulling off a really big surprise. I hope this is true, but I'll have to see it to believe it.
Cancellara: Scratch him. Didn't even make the CSC roster which is unbelievably scary... showing how talented the riders are that will be doing tempo for Basso. Cancellara will be team leader for someone down the line.
Vinoukorov: He and his team remained plagued by possible involvement in drug scandals. Perhaps this explains his mediocre performance at the Dauphine Libere, and unfortunately, is likely affecting his TdF preparations as well. If he is even allowed to start, I think the distractions will keep him from making any legitimate run at the overall. However, in typical Vinoukorov fashion, I'm sure he will defiantly make his presence known in one or two stages nonetheless.
Cadel Evans: Not on my previous list, but his win at Romandie and his strong time trial performance at the tour de suisse demonstrate that this Aussie climber is a real GC contender. Sorry to have missed you the first time Cadel.
Cunego: will finally make the start, but will simply be a side note. Still has lots to prove, but he has the time to do this if he is patient enough
Menchov: a pretender rather than a contender. He can follow wheels but that's about it, as he demonstrated in the Dauphine.
Predictions:
1. Ullrich
2. Basso
3. Landis
4. Hincapie
5. Valverde
6. Leipheimer
7. Azevedo
8. Evans
9-10 Vinokourov/Sastre/Kloden/Moreau
With three days before the start in Strasbourg, I make my final update before the battle begins.
Ivan Basso: Nothing more needs to be said. He is ready... he has prepared well to minimize his losses in the time trial, and he and his CSC teammates will dish out pain in the mountains. Will finish no lower than 2nd. Had been my predicted winner a month ago, but...
Jan Ullrich: How could I ever have doubted this guy? Like all the other neighsayers, I questioned his form in the Giro despite his time trial win. However, his performance in the Tour de Suisse demonstrated that he is once again on track as he always has been over the past decade. Possibly more ready than he has ever been. He rode strong in the mountains, limiting his time losses. Granted none of the climbers in the Tour of Switzerland were the caliber of Ivan Basso, but nonetheless, Ullrich demonstrated that he does have the legs. Finally, he rode a flawless time trial in a blinding rainstorm to win the overall on the final day. No one has more experience in racing for the overall in the Tour de France. Sorry for not believing in you earlier Kaiser, but I believe in you now. It's a toss-up still, but I predict Jan Ullrich will win the 2006 Tour de France.
George Hincapie: Solid performance in the Dauphine, landing in top 10 on GC, and showing that he deserves serious consideration to be both Discovery team leader and contender for the overall in the TdF. He has demonstrated that he is one of the best time trialists to take the start this Saturday. His climbing is what makes him most suspect; although he has learned to ride with the best on the toughest cols, he has yet to demonstrate that he has the explosive power to make one of these stages his own. Although many people tend to blow off his win at Pla d'Adet (05 TdF) since he did no work in his role as domestique for Armstrong, the bottom line is that George had been putting himself out there for two weeks straight riding for Armstrong, but still had enough in him to ride at the front of the toughest mountain stage in the entire 2005 Tour. Next to Ullrich, no one has the wealth of knowledge of how to race a brutal 3 week stage race while gunning for the overall. In the past, this knowledge was used for the benefit of Armstrong. This year, George has been given permission to use it for himself. Although Azevedo is probably a stronger rider, George's experience will make him Discovery's team leader and will give him a legitimate shot at the podium.
Azevedo: Although he was the top Discovery rider in the Dauphine Libere, Hincapie's experience trumps Azevedo's strength, at least this year.
Popovych: Didn't have a spectacular race at the Dauphine. Has many years to improve, but 2006 will be spent riding for Hincapie or Azevedo.
Landis: What's this guy capable of? Won't know that til the race begins. Still think he is the only guy outside of Basso and Ullrich to win the 2006 outright. This will depend on how he handles himself in the mountains. His luke warm performances at the Dauphine Libere left some questions, although his team certainly tried to spin his non-performance as simply part of the master plan. Although I didn't expect him to go out and try to win stages like Ventoux, you would certainly think he would have tested himself by pushing a little harder had he been able.
Valverde: I really like this guy. He will win big in the mountains, perhaps Alp d' Huez. His time trialing prevents him from winning the overall, although he did make some improvements in this disipline as he showed in the Dauphine. the long ITT's will hurt him nonetheless and he lacks the experience and team strength to propel him to the podium
Leipheimer: His win at the Dauphine Libere was his way of telling all of us that he has been one of the most consistent riders in the last few years of the TdF. Perhaps he will remain one of the most underestimated riders capable of pulling off a really big surprise. I hope this is true, but I'll have to see it to believe it.
Cancellara: Scratch him. Didn't even make the CSC roster which is unbelievably scary... showing how talented the riders are that will be doing tempo for Basso. Cancellara will be team leader for someone down the line.
Vinoukorov: He and his team remained plagued by possible involvement in drug scandals. Perhaps this explains his mediocre performance at the Dauphine Libere, and unfortunately, is likely affecting his TdF preparations as well. If he is even allowed to start, I think the distractions will keep him from making any legitimate run at the overall. However, in typical Vinoukorov fashion, I'm sure he will defiantly make his presence known in one or two stages nonetheless.
Cadel Evans: Not on my previous list, but his win at Romandie and his strong time trial performance at the tour de suisse demonstrate that this Aussie climber is a real GC contender. Sorry to have missed you the first time Cadel.
Cunego: will finally make the start, but will simply be a side note. Still has lots to prove, but he has the time to do this if he is patient enough
Menchov: a pretender rather than a contender. He can follow wheels but that's about it, as he demonstrated in the Dauphine.
Predictions:
1. Ullrich
2. Basso
3. Landis
4. Hincapie
5. Valverde
6. Leipheimer
7. Azevedo
8. Evans
9-10 Vinokourov/Sastre/Kloden/Moreau
Labels: Tour de France
posted by Phil at 12:23 AM
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